Vaneck's model predicts $3M Bitcoin with central bank adoption

Asset management firm Vaneck projects a potential long-term price target of $3 million for Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC), based on its future role as a reserve asset held by central banks.

Matthew Sigel, Vaneck’s head of digital assets research, recently discussed Bitcoin’s growth potential in an interview, suggesting that BTC’s price could experience significant catalysts in the coming years, driven by shifts in global economic and political dynamics.

Sigel connected Bitcoin’s performance to the upcoming U.S. election, pointing out a possible correlation between former President Donald Trump’s rising poll numbers and BTC’s price movement.

“Trump is clearly the more pro-crypto and Bitcoin candidate,” he noted.

With this political influence, Sigel predicts a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, particularly if the election leads to changes in U.S. financial policies.

"We saw the exact same pattern in 2020...once a winner was announced, we had a high vol rally as new buyers came into this market," stated Sigel, reflecting on Bitcoin’s previous election-year performance.

He noted that a potential downgrade in U.S. sovereign debt by Moody’s following the election could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin’s price growth.

Sigel emphasised Bitcoin’s versatility, describing it as “a chameleon” whose correlations shift over time, making its short-term predictions challenging.

However, he highlighted Bitcoin’s increasing importance globally, particularly as an asset relevant to emerging markets, citing the recent expansion of the BRICS economic bloc, now surpassing G7’s combined GDP.

Looking ahead, Sigel shared Vaneck’s projection of BTC potentially reaching $180,000 post-election.

He explained that the smallest historical rally for Bitcoin cycles was 2,000%, suggesting that even a half-cycle of 1,000% would set a target near $180,000.

Vaneck’s long-term model envisions Bitcoin as a central bank asset by 2050, forecasting a $3 million valuation with a “modest 2% weight” in global reserves, reflecting a 16% compound annual growth rate.

At the time of writing, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $$68,011.72.