Markets are in action as early election results favoring Donald Trump fuel gains across stocks and crypto. SP 500 futures are up, Treasury yields are surging, and the dollar’s on track for its biggest win since 2020. With two-thirds of US state election results now, SP futures rose 1.2%, while US 10-year yields jumped to a four-month high of 4.44%.
Bitcoin (BTC) joined the rally, spiking by over 8% to hit a new record touching $75,000 for the first time. Investors were betting big on Trump’s win against Harris. Reportedly, Bitcoin has delivered high post-election returns as it gained 87%, 44%, and 145% in 2012, 2016, and 2020, respectively.
Trump’s early lead fuels market surge
Presidential Candidate Donald Trump’s early Electoral College lead over Harris has boosted trades tied to a Republican win. This has spurred demand for smaller-cap stocks, crypto, and sectors sensitive to Grand Old Party policies.
Data shows that Japanese and Australian stocks climbed, while Hong Kong slipped. Nikkei 225 gained 2.46% while SP/ASX 200 grew marginally. The US Dollar Index (DXY) surged 1.3% as the dollar’s safe haven appeal kicked in amid election night volatility. The Mexican peso dropped 2.8%, while the yen and euro fell by over 1.5%. As the dollar rallied, metals like copper took a hit, while oil prices dipped.
Small caps on the Russell 2000 surged by 2.5%, with domestic-focused companies positioned to benefit from Republican policies if Trump prevails . However, Trump Media Tech Group jumped by more than 43% in early trading on Robinhood. The gains suggest a broader “Trump trades” outlook linked to policy expectations.
Betting sites are showing a spike in Trump’s odds, and markets are feeling the impact with gains across Trump-linked assets. Polymarket shows that the Republican candidate now holds 99% odds of winning the elections. Similarly, Kalshi predicts 97% odds for Trump.
Bitcoin hits record $75K
Analysts expect Bitcoin to fluctuate sharply until a winner is declared. A Trump win could drive prices higher, while a Harris victory may bring downside risks. Bitcoin price skyrocketed by 18% in the last 30 days. The crypto king is trading at an average price of $75,003, at press time. Its 24-hour trading volume is up by 97% to stand at $82.4 billion.
The global crypto market cap surged by around 11% over the last day to stand at $2.48 trillion with a trading volume of $154 billion. Crypto stocks are following the same trend. Coinbase rose 4% while MicroStrategy is up by 2%. With Fed rate cuts expected ahead, crypto markets may be recording a whopping rally for even more upside post-election.
Goldman Sachs predicts a Republican sweep could push the SP 500 up by 3%. However, a Democratic victory across both Congress and the presidency could mean a 3% drop.
JPMorgan sees a stock boost for all scenarios except a Democratic sweep, while Morgan Stanley warns of possible yield-driven risks in a GOP win scenario, especially for growth stocks.
