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As BTC nears $100K, keep an eye on Thanksgiving

As BTC nears $100K, keep an eye on Thanksgiving

BlockworksBlockworks2024/11/23 10:55
By:Blockworks

Holiday gatherings are often a time investors discuss their investment journeys and gains, sparking curiosity


This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe .

Bitcoin hit about $99,500 overnight before dipping below $97,300 a few hours later. The asset’s price was right around $99,350 at 2 pm ET.

On the cusp of $100,000, what will happen after BTC hits that level? Or if it doesn’t break through that in the short term?

As you know by now, nobody knows for sure. But I caught up (again) with Federico Brokate, head of 21Shares’ US business. He also helped BlackRock launch the iShares Bitcoin Trust ( IBIT ) in January while he led iShares’ business strategy in the Americas. 

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The main takeaways? Well for one, the six-figure mark represents “a psychological barrier for markets” and a price target investors have been eyeing since the last crypto bull run, Brokate explained.  

He noted, too, that BTC’s price last week quickly rose another 3-5% after hitting the $90,000 mark with enough volume — a scenario that could happen again at $100,000 .

“If the barrier isn’t decisively broken by Thanksgiving, we could expect to see prices come down 15-20% — a correction that would test the $80,000 support level and wash out leveraged and low-conviction players,” Brokate told me. 

Reaching the six-figure level would mean “greater short-term volatility as orders are filled, options liquidate and liquidity providers fulfill ETF block order requests,” he said, adding: “It wouldn’t be surprising to see some drawdown in the coming months.”

Outside of BTC, Brokate noted that altcoin markets often surge after bitcoin establishes a price plateau. This comes as investors tend to rotate to what are viewed as “higher-risk, higher-reward opportunities.” Perhaps that happens in late Q1, or Q2, the 21Shares executive posed. 

While solana (SOL) just reached a new price peak at roughly $263, ether (ETH) remains about 32% off its November 2021 high. XRP was up about 65% from a week ago, as of 2 pm ET Friday.

Finally, Thanksgiving might mean more than turkey and football this year. After all, Brokate reminded, holiday gatherings are often a time investors discuss their investment journeys and gains, sparking curiosity.

Brokate recalled that in 2017, BTC hovered in the $6,000-to-$9,000 range before surging to about $16,000 after Thanksgiving.

He added: “We may see a similar move this year.” 

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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