Ethereum’s chance of hitting $5K by year-end is below 10%
Ethereum's (CRYPTO:ETH) chances of hitting the much-anticipated $5,000 mark by the end of 2024 are less than 10%, according to on-chain options protocol Derive.
Despite significant inflows into spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which suggest a potential supply-side crisis, data shows a stark decrease in the likelihood of a $5,000 price target.
Sean Dawson, Derive's head of research, noted in a report on December 10 that the probability of Ether reaching $5,000 had dropped from a peak of 16% to just over 8%.
Ether would need a 37% surge from its current price of $3,669 to reach the $5,000 level, a major challenge given the current market conditions.
Dawson highlighted that the trading of options for ETH, including calls and puts, remains evenly distributed, signaling a neutral market sentiment.
However, not all traders share the same view.
Pseudonymous crypto trader CoinMamba remains bullish, stating in a December 10 X post that their target for Ether is still $5,000 by the end of this year.
Ethereum contributor Eric Conner also pointed to significant daily inflows into Ether ETFs, including $305 million on December 10, as evidence of a potential "supply-side crisis."
Anthony Sassano, another Ethereum educator, noted that traditional finance (TradFi) is rapidly purchasing cheap ETH, suggesting a rising demand.
Meanwhile, crypto influencers such as Ryan Adams and Pentoshi have expressed optimism about Ether's price movement.
Adams predicted a new all-time high could occur within the week, citing Ether's previous peak of $4,878 in November 2021.
Pentoshi also highlighted the positive structural changes in Ether, including large ETF flows, indicating that a retest of its all-time high could be imminent.
At the time of reporting, the Ethereum price was $3,695.88.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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