251 days after Bitcoin's 24-year halving, on-chain data points to key bull market stages

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CryptoChan2024/12/26 06:23

By:CryptoChan

According to the latest analysis by on-chain analyst CryptoChan, the market performance of Bitcoin has once again shown amazing regularity after the halving. The core on-chain indicator RHODL (Realized HODL Ratio) is continuing the rhythm of the past two bull markets. The following is a detailed interpretation.

Looking back at the bull market rhythm of the historical halving cycle:

2016 Halving Cycle:

Bitcoin Halving Day: July 9, 2016

522 days after the halving: The RHODL indicator reached a bull market peak on December 14, 2017, and the Bitcoin price reached $16.7k (non-candlestick bull top).

At that time, the indicator reflected a strong contrast between the active level on the chain and the willingness of long-term holders to sell, signaling the end of the bull market.

2020 Halving Cycle:

Bitcoin Halving Day: May 11, 2020

533 days after the halving: The RHODL indicator reached its peak again on October 26, 2021, and the Bitcoin price surged to $62.7k (non-candlestick bull top).

The end of this bull market also continued a similar pattern of on-chain indicators.

2024 Halving Cycle (Ongoing):

Bitcoin Halving Day: April 20, 2024

Currently: 251 days have passed since the halving, and the trend of the on-chain RHODL indicator is repeating the rhythm of the historical cycle, gradually climbing, indicating that the market is entering a key development stage in the middle of the bull market.

Chart interpretation:

The red line in the figure represents the RHODL trend of the halving cycle from 2016 to 2020.

The blue line corresponds to the RHODL trend from 2020 to 2024.

The black line represents the RHODL trend from 2024 to the present.

By aligning the three halving days, it can be observed that the current black line trend highly overlaps with the past two cycles, and the market may be developing towards a similar bull market peak path.

The RHODL indicator calculates the BTC holding ratio between short-term holders (who have not moved for less than 1 week) and medium-term holders (who have not moved for 1-2 years), and combines it with its on-chain buying cost market capitalization weighting to reflect the trend of changes in active funds and long-term holding funds in the market. When the indicator reaches its peak, it often marks the arrival of the bull market peak.

Current market signals:

Time node: 251 days after the halving, the black line trend shows that the current bull market development is steadily advancing, and the market active level is gradually increasing.

Historical Law: Combining the 522-day and 533-day time cycles of the past two bull market peaks, the RHODL indicator of the 2024 cycle may reach its peak in about 280 days (between February 2025 and May 2025) in the future. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to changes in the active level of market funds.

251 days after Bitcoin's 24-year halving, on-chain data points to key bull market stages image 0

Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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