From ETF Fund Flow Forecasting to Predicting the Post-Halving Scenario, Is ETH Finally Taking the Baton from BTC?

Original Article Title: "Will ETF Fund Flows Forecast the Future Market? Is ETH Finally Taking Over from BTC?"

Original Article Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

On December 29, Eugene Ng Ah Sio, a highly influential trader in the cryptocurrency community, released his outlook and expectations for the first quarter of 2025, predicting that ETH will be the best-performing mainstream token of the next quarter.

Eugene first mentioned three reasons for his bullish view on ETH: technical trends; Trump's favor (especially WLF's significant buy-in to the Ethereum ecosystem); and the status of the Base ecosystem development. He then emphasized once again that since Trump's election, there has been a 180-degree shift in the inflow of Ethereum spot ETF funds.

ETF Fund Trends: Is Ethereum More Favorable?

Eugene did not exaggerate. SoSoValue data shows that since Trump's victory on November 6, there has been a significant increase in inflows into the Ethereum spot ETF, with the growth trend even surpassing that of the Bitcoin spot ETF during the same period.

Entering late December, this trend has become even more pronounced.

SoSoValue data shows that last week (December 23 to December 27 Eastern Time), Ethereum spot ETF saw a net inflow of $349 million for the week, while the Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $388 million — this significant difference in fund flows may indicate a better outlook for ETH in the future.

As of the publication, the official ETF inflow/outflow data for Monday of this week has not been fully disclosed yet, but according to LookIntoChain's on-chain monitoring, yesterday, ten US Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of 3000 BTC ($275.59 million); nine Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of 16,359 ETH ($54.33 million), and the trend seems to remain unchanged.

Trump Concept Full House

In addition to the ETF flow data, another reason supporting the outlook for ETH is the ongoing accumulation of the Trump family project WLFI.

Over the past period, WLFI has successively acquired several Ethereum ecosystem tokens such as AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO, but the project's largest holding is still ETH.

Although this is somewhat related to WIFI itself being deployed in the Ethereum ecosystem, the phrase "even the president has gotten on board, what are you still hesitating for" still has a strong FOMO effect.

Looking back at historical data, will the script repeat itself?

Coinglass data shows that in the history of U.S. elections and post Bitcoin halving cycles, during the first quarter of the new year, ETH has performed the best, especially in the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2021, with ETH rising by 518% and 161% respectively, even surpassing BTC's returns in these two quarters (11.9%, 103.2%).

If history repeats itself, ETH may experience a significant surge in Q1 of next year.

Potential Beta Choices

If ETH is truly able to surge, some Ethereum ecosystem tokens may become higher risk/reward Beta choices, such as:

· Trump Concept Coin Portfolio: AAVE, LINK, ENA, ONDO;

· Grayscale Top 20 Selection: LINK, UNI, AAVE, ENA, OP, LDO;

· ETF Collateral Expectation Potential Upside: LDO, EIGEN, RPL, SSV;

· Top Ethereum Ecosystem AI Concepts: VIRTUAL, GAME, AIXBT;

Odaily Note: The above tokens are only examples within specific sectors and concepts and do not constitute investment advice.

Contrarian Viewpoint

Although many well-known investors/traders, including Eugene, have been openly bullish on ETH, there are also voices expressing a pessimistic view on ETH's future performance.

10x Research founder Markus Thielen has outlined a more pessimistic scenario, expecting ETH to continue to underperform and not reach a new all-time high in a "hawkish" macro environment by 2025: "We anticipate a more conservative outlook for ETH in 2025. Unlike previous years, the initial hawkish policies may face a test of weakening liquidity tailwinds."

During this period of high market volatility, the predictions offered by various parties are based solely on the conditions and indicators they focus on, leading to "one-sided conclusions." No one can predict the future, so remember to DYOR before making any decisions.

Original Article Link