Macro Outlook for Next Week: CPI and "Terrifying Data" May Overturn Rate Cut Expectations, Federal Reserve Shifts to Cautious Stance

Next week, the United States will release several major data sets, including PPI, CPI and "fear data", which will continue to bring volatility to the market. The following are key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

Wednesday 21:30, U.S. December CPI data and January New York Fed Manufacturing Index;

Thursday 21:30, number of initial jobless claims for the week up to January 11th in the U.S., and December retail sales monthly rate.
As the Federal Reserve shifts towards a more cautious stance, there were some encouraging signs in November's CPI report last year indicating that price increases for housing and broader service categories have begun to ease. This makes it possible for a downward surprise in next Wednesday's announced CPI data but any slowdown is more likely to occur in early 2025 rather than last December's CPI data. Before announcing CPI data, investors will pay attention to last December’s PPI data from America set to be released next Tuesday; while on Thursday all eyes of market participants would be focused on retail sales figures known as “fearful” numbers.