Matrixport: Bitcoin's "Spring Festival Market" may reappear, with an 83% probability of rising in previous years

According to the latest report released by Matrixport, Bitcoin achieved positive returns during the Chinese New Year for 11 out of the past 12 years, with an impressive statistical success rate of 83%, proving the profitability during this period. Bitcoin is currently in a complex interaction of opposing forces. Technically, the daily reversal index reached oversold levels last week, suggesting potential support, while the weekly index still indicates that Bitcoin is in an overbought state. In terms of macroeconomics, unfavorable factors such as tightening liquidity and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve have brought negative impact. However, bullish driving factors such as expectations for the United States to establish a Bitcoin reserve and the pro-cryptocurrency Trump administration coming to power provide support. Since the FOMC meeting in December 2024, stablecoin issuance has stalled, reflecting a decrease in fiat currency inflows, but the Bitcoin funding rate shows early signs of recovery in trading activity, putting Bitcoin in a consolidation phase. However, with the start of the Chinese Lunar New Year on January 29th, this period represents a statistically favorable 20-day trading window for Bitcoin, potentially providing many opportunities for long positions.