Greeks.live: Pay close attention to the interest rate decisions and related reports of the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank next week

On January 26, Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, posted on the X platform that in terms of macro news, despite Trump issuing orders for multiple economic policies in his first week of office, the probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates next week is still as high as 98%. Next Thursday both the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank will announce their interest rate decisions and related reports which are worth paying attention to. Japan has increased its interest rates while there's a high probability that Eurozone will continue to cut theirs. The market expectations are fairly consistent with significant reduction in market uncertainty and notable decrease in main term IVs. New EU regulations require cryptocurrency exchanges to comply with travel rule guidelines and strengthen anti-money laundering measures; exchanges like Deribit need to improve their KYC before they can be used normally.

Regarding the outlook for the crypto market: Bitcoin continues to fluctuate above $100,000. Last week's Trump meme-triggered market entered a cooling-off period; market attention has become more dispersed again and frenzy gradually subsided. In terms of options, short-term IV significantly decreased; this week’s at-the-money IV already fell below 55%, all maturities’ at-the-money IV is less than 60%, but these uncertainties have not been realized by the market yet. Recently there have been many large bullish option trades; after "the other shoe dropped", institutions began increasing their selling positions substantially.