Traders tend to bet that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates before June
After the Federal Reserve maintained its policy interest rate unchanged and abandoned the long-term mention of inflation "progress" in its post-meeting statement, short-term interest rate futures pricing indicated a greater possibility that the Fed will not cut rates before June. After the statement was released, traders estimated the probability of a rate cut before June to be about 40%, compared to previous forecasts close to 50%. Interest rate futures contracts continue to point towards June as the most likely month for resuming cuts, with an even greater likelihood of a second 25 basis point cut by year-end.
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