While Bitcoin has been moving within a certain range for a long time, people are wondering when the price will rise.
At this point, the CryptoQuant analyst noted that Bitcoin, which has been stuck in a price range between $90,000 and $106,000 for the past few weeks, is at risk of a months-long consolidation similar to the consolidation in March 2024.
The analyst recalled that Bitcoin went through a consolidation phase of about seven months from March 2024 to October 2024 before resuming its uptrend amid excitement around the victory of US President Donald Trump.
Stating that the number of active Bitcoin wallets and transactions is on a downward trend, the analyst also said that the accumulation rate of spot Bitcoin ETFs has also slowed down and there are outflows.
According to the analyst, apart from these, there is also a decrease in the number of transaction outputs (UTXO) and the magnitude of this decrease is similar to the correction period in September 2023.
At this point, the analyst noted that if the current downtrend continues, there could be signs of investor outflow, similar to the peak of the market cycle in 2017. However, the analyst noted that it is too early to say that the current bull cycle has ended with just the decline in UTXO, adding that other indicators for BTC are showing an upward trend.
He said the previous rally was due to Trump's victory and that was priced in.
“As previous bullish narratives are already priced in, further upside requires resolution of uncertainties or new bullish catalysts.”
The analyst stated that Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance was not concretely reflected in the market and that the fears of a trade war initiated by Trump caused uncertainty in the market, and said, “Considering the current conditions, it is very difficult to predict Bitcoin's short-term price movements. If market conditions improve and uncertainty is resolved, Bitcoin may continue its upward movement. If uncertainty continues, another long consolidation phase similar to the one that started in March 2024 may occur.”
*This is not investment advice.
