Escalating trade tensions amid new tariffs are forcing financial institutions to reassess their forecasts for the Fed’s monetary policy, with even the most hawkish analysts now conceding a rate cut in 2024 is not out of the question.
Deutsche Bank’s economics team, previously the most hawkish on Wall Street on the Fed’s 2024 policy outlook, is facing a challenge to its forecast. While their official position is that the Fed will hold interest rates steady this year, Chief U.S. Economist Matthew Luzzetti acknowledged that the impact of newly imposed tariffs could significantly change that outlook.
“You’re definitely starting to see some negative impacts from trade uncertainty in economic data,” Luzzetti said. “If that impact expands and shows up in weak labor market data, the Fed could cut rates this year.”
But Deutsche Bank is taking a cautious approach, preferring to monitor the duration and scope of the tariffs' impact before revising its official forecast.
The uncertainty surrounding the trade environment was echoed by New York Fed President John Williams, who said it was important to understand the complex details of tariffs.
“There is still a lot of uncertainty about how tariffs will evolve,” Williams said. He also acknowledged that tariffs would inevitably put pressure on inflation, affect market sentiment and potentially hinder economic growth:
“Customs duties will have a certain impact on inflation. Customs duties will also affect market sentiment and drag down economic growth.”
Despite these concerns, Williams maintained a generally optimistic view of the U.S. economy, citing the strong labor market and a gradual slowdown in inflation.
“The US economy is in good shape and the labor market has stabilized. Inflation has gradually slowed,” he said.
Williams also expressed confidence in current monetary policy, arguing that it is well positioned to adapt to changing economic conditions.
“Monetary policy is in good shape and can be adjusted as needed. I don’t see any need to change interest rate policy at this time,” he concluded.
*This is not investment advice.
