Analyst: Dollar plunge boosts Bitcoin bull run, but other indicators are worrisome

RealVision crypto analyst Jamie Coutts said that a weak dollar could push Bitcoin higher, but there are two key indicators that may cause concerns in the short term. Despite the sharp drop in the dollar, my framework is becoming bullish, but two indicators are still causing alarm: the US Treasury bond volatility (MOVE index) and corporate bond spreads. Coutts describes Bitcoin as a game between central banks around the world, and despite these worrying indicators, the overall outlook remains cautiously bullish. The MOVE index is an indicator of expected volatility in the US Treasury bond market. Coutts noted that while the MOVE index is currently stable, it is trending upwards. An increase in bond volatility could lead to further liquidity tightening, and at the same time, corporate bond spreads have widened for three consecutive weeks. Reversals in significant corporate bond spreads typically coincide with Bitcoin price peaks. Coutts concludes that overall, these indicators present a negative signal for Bitcoin. However, the depreciation of the dollar - one of the largest monthly depreciations in the past 12 years - remains a key driver in my framework.