Powell Delays Rate Cuts : Is Bitcoin At Risk ?

Investors are scrutinizing the slightest signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), whose monetary policy could be the trigger for a bear market. While some hoped for rate cuts as early as 2024, the latest statement from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has dampened those hopes. The absence of rate reductions could pressure the financial markets, particularly risky assets like bitcoin. Economist Timothy Peterson warns: if the Fed does not cut rates in 2025, the Nasdaq could fall, dragging down the crypto market along with it. A new correction of bitcoin below $70,000 is now a serious hypothesis.

The Fed’s Decisions and Their Impact on Bitcoin

The Fed plays a crucial role in balancing financial markets. Jerome Powell emphasized that the institution is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity,” thus postponing any anticipation of interest rate cuts. This wait-and-see stance could weigh heavily on risky asset markets. Timothy Peterson, author of the economic model based on Metcalfe’s law, believes this inertia could precipitate a 17 % drop in the Nasdaq over seven months. According to him, bitcoin would follow a similar trajectory. Thus, this correction with an estimated drop of 33 % would bring the crypto around $57,000.

However, the analyst tempers his comments. He believes that bitcoin will likely not fall as low due to the strong presence of investors ready to seize any buying opportunity. “There are always traders rushing to buy bitcoin when they think its price is low enough,” he asserts in a post on social network X (formerly Twitter) on March 8, 2025. Thanks to the trends of 2022, he recalls that when many analysts forecasted a low point at $12,000, bitcoin only dropped to $16,000, which is 25 % above the initial projections.

Divergent Perspectives on Bitcoin’s Evolution

While Timothy Peterson highlights a possible correction below $70,000, other experts have a more optimistic view. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, anticipates a correction phase between $70,000 and $75,000 but then envisions a massive rebound up to $250,000 by the end of the year. According to him, a return to monetary creation policies could work in bitcoin’s favor and propel its price to record levels.

On its part, Blockware Solutions proposes a very different scenario. The firm believes that, even in a bearish case, bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025 if the Fed ultimately decided to reverse its policy. The market remains divided between a deep short-term correction and a potential bullish rally if monetary policy became more flexible.

This uncertainty underscores an undeniable reality: the Fed’s policy remains a decisive factor for crypto investors, and any signal, whether restrictive or accommodating, will have immediate repercussions on the market. The volatility of bitcoin could intensify in the coming months, making every Fed decision crucial for the trajectory of cryptos.