Forecasters on cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket have mirrored the market decline, downgrading their expectations for XRP to reach a record price in the short term.
According to the latest data, the probability of XRP reaching a new all-time high before the end of the first half of 2025 has dropped to 26% from 56% earlier this month.
The shift in sentiment follows President Donald Trump’s recent executive order creating a U.S. digital asset stockpile that, contrary to previous speculation, will not include new token purchases for now. Previously, expectations that the U.S. government would accumulate altcoins, including XRP, had fueled bullish sentiment on the token.
With no new catalysts to excite investors, XRP has been caught in the general crypto decline that has seen the market lose $600 billion in value since the beginning of the year. XRP has followed the losses in altcoins, falling by 31% since Trump took office.
Despite the bearish outlook on Polymarket, there are still signs of optimism for XRP. On the prediction platform Kelshi, forecasters give a 48% chance that XRP will outperform Bitcoin and other altcoins in the coming months. In addition, XRP is one of several altcoin ETFs currently under review by the Securities and Exchange Commission, with a decision expected by mid-October.
JPMorgan analysts predict that an XRP ETF could attract $8 billion in inflows from investors in its first year, providing a potential long-term bullish catalyst. Meanwhile, retail interest remains strong, particularly in South Korea, where whale wallets bought $700 million worth of XRP last week.
On the derivatives side, traders on crypto exchange Deribit continue to focus on a significant price rally. The most popular option contract for XRP on Deribit is a $5 call contract with a notional value of $3.9 million, suggesting that some market participants are still expecting a breakout in 2025.
*This is not investment advice.
