Macro Outlook for Next Week: Trump's "Self-Harming Strategy" Pressures the Federal Reserve to Cut Interest Rates, Super Central Bank Week is Coming

News on March 15th, for gold investors, this week is a "historical" one. In a world full of uncertainties, gold broke through the important threshold of $3000 for the first time on Friday due to investors chasing this safe-haven asset in this historic surge, seeking to avoid economic uncertainty caused by US President Trump's tariff war. Next week global investors will welcome a "super central bank week", as the Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Swiss National Bank, Swedish Central Bank and Bank of England will successively announce interest rate decisions. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday 20:30, U.S. February retail sales monthly rate, March New York Fed Manufacturing Index

Thursday 02:00, Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic forecast summary

Thursday 02:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell holds a monetary policy press conference

Thursday 20:30, Number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. up to March 15th, U.S. fourth quarter current account balance, March Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

Friday 21:05, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams delivers a speech

The most important event next week is undoubtedly the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on Thursday. In addition to the interest rate decision, statement and press conference, the committee will also release updated economic forecasts, including a new "dot plot". As markets widely expect no action before June, focus may firmly be on the dot plot. Some analysts predict that this so-called "economic panic" is a "bitter trick" by the Trump administration trying to force the Fed to lower its stance and cut rates as soon as possible. Former Lehman Brothers trader Larry McDonald also predicts that Trump is deliberately creating an economic recession in order to pressure the Fed into lowering rates, thereby reducing US government interest payments.