BlackRock, Fidelity Could File for XRP ETF, Expert Predicts as Approval Odds Surge to 82%

The race for an XRP ETF (exchange-traded fund) in the US is heating up as top financial firms, including BlackRock and Fidelity, are predicted to join the competition.

Brazil beat the US with an XRP ETF already running after Hashdex secured approval a month ago, effectively pioneering the country’s financial instrument.

Nate Geraci Says XRP ETF Only A Matter of Time

Nate Geraci stated that XRP ETF approval is “simply a matter of time.” According to the president of the ETF Store, the XRP token is the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency by market capitalization, making it an attractive candidate for major ETF issuers.

He expects leading asset managers like BlackRock and Fidelity to enter the XRP ETF market. This would mean following the footsteps of other firms like Bitwise, Canary Capital, WisdomTree, and Grayscale, who have already submitted filings.

“Ripple lawsuit coming to end… Seems obvious that spot XRP ETF approval is simply a matter of time IMO. And yes, I expect BlackRock, Fidelity, etc. to all be involved. XRP is currently 3rd largest non-stablecoin crypto asset by market cap. Largest ETF issuers aren’t going to ignore this,” wrote Geraci.

While Fidelity’s position remains unclear, BlackRock recently said it would prioritize Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, citing their strong performance and market maturity. Specifically, regulatory uncertainty and low market share kept BlackRock from launching altcoin ETFs like Solana or XRP.

“We’re just at the tip of the iceberg with Bitcoin and especially Ethereum. Just a tiny fraction of our clients own IBIT and ETHA, so that’s what we’re focused on (vs. launching new altcoin ETFs),” Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas stated, citing Jay Jacobs, the head of BlackRock’s ETF department.

Nevertheless, the growing confidence in an XRP ETF stems from recent positive developments in Ripple’s long-running legal battle with the US SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). The securities regulator recently dropped its lawsuit against Ripple, marking a significant victory for the blockchain company.

As BeInCrypto reported, Ripple will retain $75 million from its settlement with the SEC as the case enters its final stages.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has expressed renewed optimism about the company’s future in the US following this break. In his opinion, the legal victory paves the way for further institutional adoption.

Five months ago, Garlinghouse predicted that an XRP ETF was inevitable. Recent regulatory clarity has only strengthened this belief.

XRP ETF Approval Odds Soar to 82%

As of February, the SEC began a 240-day countdown to review XRP ETF applications, with approval odds increasing significantly. According to Polymarket data, the likelihood of an XRP ETF approval in 2025 has surged to 82%. At the same time, there is a 41% chance of approval by July 31, 2025.

This growing confidence reflects the SEC’s changing stance on crypto-based ETFs following the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs earlier this year.

JPMorgan analysts predict that XRP ETFs could attract between $6 and $8 billion in 6 to 12 months. This projection reflects the strong demand for regulated crypto investment products. This is particularly pronounced among institutional investors seeking exposure to digital assets without direct custody risks.

However, while the optics look good for XRP ETFs, investor demand for additional products beyond Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs remains uncertain.

Nic Puckrin, financial analyst and founder of The Coin Bureau, says the additional ETFs may be unnecessary in a soon-to-be oversaturated market.

“…Trump Media’s new “Made in America” ETFs – which are set to include US-made altcoins alongside stocks – will bring nothing new to the table. In all likelihood, their success will be short-lived and their long-term performance will be lackluster. Investors will continue choosing BTC ETFs over all this noise,” Puckrin told BeInCrypto.

BeInCrypto data shows XRP was trading for $2.47 as of this writing. This represents a modest surge of almost 2% in the last 24 hours.