- SEC acknowledges Fidelity’s Solana ETF filing, marking the first response among recent applications.
- Polymarket data shows an 83% approval probability for Solana ETF as of April 4, 2025.
- RSI climbs to 43.71, and MACD narrows, signaling reduced bearish pressure on SOL price.
In a new SEC development, the crypto sector has witnessed several key updates. Alongside the recent progress of the STABLE Act, new regulatory moves surrounding spot ETFs have come to light.
Solana ETF SEC Acknowledgement and Approval Probability
One of the most significant updates involves Fidelity Investments. The prominent ETF issuer’s filing for a spot Solana ETF has been formally acknowledged by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). This acknowledgment marks a step forward in the product’s path toward potential approval.
Although there have been many ETF applications over the past few months, Fidelity’s filing is the first to receive a direct response from the SEC. Previously, during a wave of excitement around spot Solana ETFs, several proposals were submitted but faced rejection under the leadership of SEC Chair Gary Gensler.
According to Polymarket, the prediction of whether the ETF might get the approval has skyrocketed. At the time of press, Polymarket shows the probability of a Solana ETF approval in 2025, reaching 83%. This percentage remained unchanged as of April 4, 2025, at 12:23 PM, according to Polymarket data.
Source: PolymarketBetween January and early February, the market experienced significant volatility, with chances rising sharply in mid-January. After peaking around late January, the rate saw fluctuations but stayed mostly above the 80% threshold. From February to early March, the trend steadied, with minor dips and recoveries visible on multiple occasions. Throughout March, the estimate fluctuated slightly before stabilizing again at around 83% in early April 2025.
Solana Technical Analysis: RSI and MACD indicators
Meanwhile, technical analysis is hinting at a possible rally as the ETF gains traction. According to market charts, Solana (SOL) has shown signs of recovery, with its daily chart pointing to a possible shift in trend. The price moved to $119.56 on April 4 after testing the $114.58 level.
Source: Trading ViewThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 43.71, having risen from a low of 39.58. This uptick places it near the midpoint range between 30 and 70. Such movement typically reflects a pause in bearish momentum. The RSI remains below the neutral level of 50, meaning SOL has yet to regain full upward pressure. However, the upward slope marks a divergence from the earlier downtrend.
The MACD reading currently sits at -0.33, with the signal line at -5.98 and the MACD line at -6.32. This configuration confirms that SOL is still within bearish territory . The gap between the MACD and signal lines has narrowed, suggesting a potential cross-over if upward movement continues. There is no bullish crossover yet, but the histogram bars are shrinking, indicating slowing bearish momentum.
