Bitcoin weathers global tariff storm, suggesting safe-haven potential

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing surprising signs of resilience amid one of the most volatile macroeconomic environments in recent history as aggressive US tariffs rattled global markets and pushed risk assets into retreat.

Despite a 19.1% pullback since January highs, Bitcoin has held up better than most major altcoins and equities, even mounting brief rebounds on days when traditional markets sank, Binance Research said in an April 7 report.

Based on CryptoSlate data, Bitcoin was trading at $79,850 as of press time, up 2.4% over the past 24 hours.

The report noted that long-term holders continue to accumulate BTC, which indicates Bitcoin has the potential to reassert a safe-haven narrative in the face of economic uncertainty.

According to the report:

“Bitcoin’s behavior in recent weeks reveals an important shift — while it remains sensitive to macro shocks, it’s starting to decouple from broader risk assets during moments of peak stress.”

That divergence comes as the US triggers a global tariff spiral not seen since the 1930s. President Donald Trump, returning to office in January, enacted sweeping import tariffs on April 5.

The move culminated in a 10% blanket levy on almost every country in the world, layered with steep country-specific rates, including 54% on China, 20% on the EU, and 46% on Vietnam.

China and Canada have already retaliated, and further global responses are expected. Meanwhile, more than 50 countries have agreed to concessions.

Bitcoin holding firm amid stagflation fears, Fed uncertainty

While the overall crypto market has lost over $1 trillion in value — a 25.9% drop — Bitcoin has been less volatile than high-beta sectors such as memecoins and AI-linked tokens, which fell more than 50%. Ethereum (ETH), often more sensitive to risk-off moves, is down over 40%.

Data shows Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with equities rose from –0.32 in February to 0.47 in March, reflecting its alignment with broader market sentiment during the tariff escalation.

However, at the same time, its previously neutral correlation with gold dropped to –0.22, suggesting that Bitcoin may be positioning itself differently than traditional risk or safe-haven assets.

Importantly, long-term supply metrics remain strong. Bitcoin held by long-term investors continues to rise, suggesting conviction among holders even as volatility spikes. Some analysts view this as a signal that BTC could regain its footing faster than other digital assets once macro conditions stabilize.

The macro backdrop is increasingly complex. The average US tariff rate now stands at nearly 19%, up from just 2.5% last year, the sharpest rise since the Great Depression. Inflation expectations are climbing, with consumer surveys showing a rise toward 5%, even as global growth projections weaken.

This has created a stagflationary threat that complicates central bank responses. The Federal Reserve, once focused squarely on cooling inflation, is now expected to cut interest rates up to four times this year, based on the Fed funding futures market.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that recent tariffs are “larger than expected” and could undermine both price stability and growth.

Decoupling or dependence?

Whether Bitcoin continues to outperform in this environment may hinge on two factors: monetary policy and narrative momentum.

Should the Fed pivot to easing while inflation remains elevated, BTC could benefit from renewed liquidity and its positioning as a non-sovereign, “hard money” alternative.

Binance Research noted that Bitcoin’s long-term correlation with equities remains modest, averaging 0.32 since 2020, and with gold just 0.12. Past periods, like the March 2023 banking crisis, showed BTC’s capacity to decouple and rally amid broader instability.

According to the report:

“If markets stabilize and Bitcoin reclaims its role as an inflation hedge, it may attract fresh flows as traditional portfolios seek diversification.”

For now, crypto remains tethered to macro headlines — with tariffs, inflation prints, and central bank signals driving sentiment. However, Bitcoin’s relative strength through the storm may offer a glimpse of the role it could play in a fractured, protectionist global economy.

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