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Ethereum approaches its MVRV buy zone as whale activity and exchange outflows serve as indicators of potential accumulation.
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Ethereum is currently nearing the $1,367 MVRV band, a pivotal level historically linked to bullish reversals.
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According to COINOTAG, “Major support zones are often seen as strategic entry points for institutional investors,” reflecting current market sentiment.
Ethereum nears its MVRV buy zone, revealing whale interest and falling exchange reserves, hinting at potential bullish accumulation.
Ethereum: Pressure builds for a breakout
The broader price structure of Ethereum remains closely bound within a descending parallel channel that has persisted since late 2024. As of the latest assessment, ETH is trading at $1,623.10, marking a 1.19% decrease over the past 24 hours. This setup indicates potential volatility ahead.
The immediate resistance is located at $1,679, while a critical breakout level is eyeing $2,117. However, Ethereum continues to struggle at the mid-range of this channel, suggesting that without a decisive bullish breakout, a visit to the lower band of support appears increasingly likely. Market observance reveals that the current relief bounce may be fleeting unless supported by significant buying volume.
Source: TradingView
Whales and reserves point to stealth accumulation
In addition, exchange behavior significantly supports the thesis of stealth accumulation. Over the last week, exchange reserves have declined by 3.8%, resulting in a total of $30.93 billion—a move that aligns with increased investor confidence. This trend suggests a shift towards holding assets off centralized platforms, which historically indicates bullish intentions.
Low exchange reserves tend to minimize potential selling pressure, creating an environment conducive to establishing a price floor. Furthermore, Ethereum whale activity indicates a notable shift; in the past 30 days, large holder outflows surged by 216.21% while inflows increased by 125.29%. Notably, outflows alone rose by 34.72% in the last week, indicating that whales are moving assets into cold storage, a sign of longer-term holding as opposed to immediate speculative trading.
This behavior reinforces the perspective that significant accumulation is taking place during this market phase.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Majority investors remain underwater
Despite the signals indicating potential accumulation, investor sentiment is under duress, with a notable 73.08% of ETH holders currently “Out of the Money,” meaning they hold assets above the prevailing market price. Conversely, only 20.92% of holders are in profit, while about 6% are at breakeven. Such extensive unrealized losses can often lead to panic selling; however, they are also indicative of the final stages of bear cycles, suggesting that a psychological reset might be necessary.
This state could give rise to renewed demand as weaker hands exit the market, allowing stronger holders to accumulate in preparation for future price increases.
Source: IntoTheBlock
Conclusion
Ethereum’s convergence of technical compression, declining reserves, increasing whale outflows, and widespread unrealized losses indicates a market nearing exhaustion. While ETH remains traded below critical resistance levels and exhibits structural weakness, emerging on-chain signals suggest the $1,367 MVRV zone has the potential to serve once again as a catalyst for recovery. However, for the bullish case to materialize, it is imperative that bulls reclaim significant levels soon to avert deepening downside pressures.
