Expert says Strategy’s Bitcoin buying has weak effect on price

A new analysis by Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at Vaneck, questions the widespread belief that Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) buying has a significant impact on the cryptocurrency’s price.

Sigel’s research, which covers the period from October 2024 to April 2025, shows that Strategy’s purchases made up only 3.3% of weekly Bitcoin trading activity in most weeks.

The average rose to 8.4%, but that figure was influenced by a few weeks of unusually high activity.

In eight of the 27 weeks studied, Strategy did not purchase any Bitcoin.

A statistical review revealed a correlation of just 25% between Strategy’s weekly Bitcoin purchases and the end-of-week price.

There was also a 28% correlation between purchases and weekly price changes.

“These figures suggest only weak associations that lack predictive or explanatory strength in understanding Bitcoin’s broader price behavior,” Sigel said.

The study also looked at the roles of Bitcoin mining and institutional fund purchases.

It found that secondary market trading volumes consistently surpassed both newly mined Bitcoin and large-scale institutional acquisitions.

During the study period, secondary trading volume was nearly 20 times greater than the new Bitcoin supply.

Even when including Strategy’s purchases, secondary market trades remained about 17 times larger than the total new supply.

Sigel concluded that the assumption that structured Bitcoin buying programs materially influence short-term price action is unsupported.

He emphasised that broader market dynamics, rather than isolated corporate purchases or mining, are the main forces behind Bitcoin’s price movement.

At the time of reporting, the Bitcoin (BTC) price was $93,464.96.