CryptoQuant CEO: If BTC Hits ATH Before Q4, Will Completely Abandon Cycle Theory

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated on X: After I declared the end of the bull cycle, Bitcoin dropped 10%, but now the price is 10% higher than when I made that call. I still believe we are in a wide fluctuation range. If it breaks through the $100,000 mark, I will happily admit I was wrong. Before that, I will continue to observe data for several weeks to confirm whether this is a real trend reversal.

My analysis focuses on the long-term supply and demand relationship based on on-chain data. However, in this market, which reacts to every word from Trump, short-term price movements are more event-driven, making traditional cyclical on-chain indicators ineffective. Of course, even among on-chain analysts, interpretations of the data can vary greatly. If Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high before the fourth quarter, I will completely abandon the cycle theory. A market without clear cycles may be entirely different from what we previously believed. At that point, the die-hard bulls would be correct—perpetual growth.