Economist Timothy Peterson believes Bitcoin may be heading into a powerful short-term rally, driven by rising U.S. High Yield interest rates and shifting macroeconomic dynamics.
In a recent analysis, Peterson examined Bitcoin’s past performance during periods when High Yield rates exceeded 8%—a threshold currently being tested. Drawing from 38 historical occurrences since 2010, he found that Bitcoin averaged a 71% return over the following three months, with a median gain of 31%. The worst loss during those periods? Just 16%.
New Market Behavior Emerging in 2024
Peterson’s data suggests Bitcoin could trade between $75,000 and $138,000 within the next 90 days, based on its previous performance in similar environments.
He also highlighted a key shift in market behavior: the correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar Index has reached record levels. Though not directly causal, Peterson said this link reflects how both assets are now being driven by tight liquidity , elevated real interest rates, and risk-averse sentiment.
“These are macro stress signals—and Bitcoin is reacting just like any major asset class would under pressure,” he noted.
Breakout Expected as Conditions Shift
Peterson expects the strong correlation between Bitcoin and macro indicators to break down later this year, as interest rates stabilize and liquidity improves. Once that shift happens, he believes Bitcoin could decouple and resume a more aggressive uptrend.
With historical patterns, tightening conditions, and investor behavior aligning, Peterson’s analysis points to a possible short-term breakout for BTC—even in the face of ongoing economic headwinds.
