Bitcoin Advanced NVT Sits Above This Critical Threshold — What It Means For Price Action

Following another impressive weekly performance, the price of Bitcoin is now trading above the psychologically relevant $100,000 mark. The flagship cryptocurrency jumped as high as $103,800, its highest price level since January 2025. However, the latest on-chain data suggests that the BTC price might be in a make-or-break season.

Is A BTC Parabolic Rally On The Horizon?

Crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci took to the social media platform X to reveal that the Bitcoin Advanced Network Value to Transaction (NVT) metric has surpassed a critical threshold. According to the online pundit, this on-chain development suggests a potential shift in market dynamics, which could ultimately impact the price of BTC.

The Advanced NVT metric is a refined version of the traditional NVT indicator, which calculates the ratio of Network Value (market cap) by the volume (in USD) transferred through the blockchain daily. This Advanced Network Value to Transaction metric helps to better capture extreme valuation conditions.

Hence, when the Advanced NVT metric surges above its long-term moving average by more than two standard deviations (2xSD), it implies that the BTC market cap growth does not correlate with its blockchain volume. Historically, this phenomenon often precedes either an extended price rally or sometimes a severe market correction.

According to the data shared by Kesmeci, the Bitcoin Advanced NVT is above the 2xSD threshold, even though it might not persist above this level. The analyst mentioned that the indicator does not spend an extended period above 2xSD unless Bitcoin is on the verge of a parabolic price rally.

Kesmeci noted:

However, with a parabolic rally, it is possible that it could move much higher than 4xSD. This has happened before with the ETF rally after the approval of Spot ETFs.

Furthermore, Kesmeci highlighted that while history suggests that Bitcoin Advanced NVT being above 2xSD is an anomaly that often precedes a rally, it is not set in stone that the indicator must lose the 2xSD level. Hence, investors might want to closely watch this BTC metric above this, as the premier cryptocurrency is currently at a critical juncture, which could define its long-term trajectory.

Bitcoin Price At A Glance

Over the past week, the price of BTC regained a six-figure valuation for the first time since losing the $100,000 level in February. As of this writing, the market leader sits just above the $103,100 mark, reflecting 0.5% jump in the past 24 hours. On the weekly timeframe, though, Bitcoin’s value is up by more than 6%.