BTC Market Pulse: Week 20

Overview

Bitcoin pushed to new highs near $104.7K this week, led by a clear spot-driven rally. Price momentum remains elevated above the statistical extremes, with Spot CVD flipping sharply positive and spot volume rebounding back to its lower band – all indicating strong buy-side pressure from aggressive market participants. ETF inflows also remain robust, supporting the spot trend, although trade volume shows some signs of cooling.

On the other hand, derivatives markets, particularly futures, initially lagged the rally, with open interest recovering slowly and funding rates only recently flipping positive. However, perpetual CVD confirms that the futures market is now catching up, with net long aggression rising steadily since the March lows. Options markets echo this trend, with rising open interest, a recovering volatility spread, and deeply negative skew, all reinforcing a bullish directional bias, though with elevated positioning risk.

From an on-chain perspective, fundamentals like active addresses and transfer volume are showing slow, constructive growth, while fee pressure remains modest. Liquidity metrics present a mixed picture: realized cap is recovering, and HODLing behavior remains dominant with a low STH/LTH ratio, but hot capital inflow remains subdued, signaling that new demand is still hesitant.

The market has now entered a high-risk, high-reward structure, with 94% of supply in profit, NUPL nearing euphoric levels, and the Realized Profit/Loss ratio elevated at 2.38. This reflects growing incentives to realize gains. However, if demand continues to build in response to the rally – particularly among new entrants – this structure has the potential to persist for several more weeks, similar to prior bullish phases.

Off-Chain Indicators

On-Chain Indicators

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Disclaimer: This report does not provide any investment advice. All data is provided for information and educational purposes only. No investment decision shall be based on the information provided here and you are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.

Exchange balances presented are derived from Glassnode’s comprehensive database of address labels, which are amassed through both officially published exchange information and proprietary clustering algorithms. While we strive to ensure the utmost accuracy in representing exchange balances, it is important to note that these figures might not always encapsulate the entirety of an exchange’s reserves, particularly when exchanges refrain from disclosing their official addresses. We urge users to exercise caution and discretion when utilizing these metrics. Glassnode shall not be held responsible for any discrepancies or potential inaccuracies. 

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