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Polymarket sets 56% odds on Trump ending capital gains tax

Polymarket sets 56% odds on Trump ending capital gains tax

GrafaGrafa2025/05/14 00:40
By:Mahathir Bayena

Speculators on the prediction market Polymarket currently assign a 56 percent probability that former U.S. President Donald Trump will eliminate the long-term capital gains tax in 2025.

As of May 12, wagers totaling over $201,000 have been placed on this outcome, reflecting a decline from a peak probability of 80 percent in mid-April.

While Trump has not directly addressed capital gains tax repeal, his policy proposals and aligned think tank recommendations have suggested significant tax reductions.

For example, the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 blueprint calls for lowering the capital gains tax rate to 15 percent, a level last seen in 1941.

Trump has publicly prioritised eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits, and proposed removing income taxes for Americans earning under $150,000.

A repeal or major cut to the long-term capital gains tax could have substantial effects on financial markets, particularly benefiting Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) holders by reducing tax liabilities on profits.

Such changes might encourage increased trading activity, improve liquidity, and attract investors seeking tax-efficient assets.

Bitcoin’s appeal as a store of value could also rise under a more favorable tax regime.

However, the likelihood of capital gains tax elimination remains uncertain as any change requires congressional approval.

Another prediction platform, Kalshi, places the probability of Trump ending capital gains tax at only 12 percent, highlighting contrasting market views.

“Any shift in capital gains tax policy remains notably contingent on congressional approval,” analysts note, indicating legislative hurdles remain significant.

Until Congress acts, the prospect of abolishing the long-term capital gains tax will remain speculative despite market speculation.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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