Analyst: Rising US Treasury Yields Have Underlying Logic Beneficial to Bitcoin's Increase

On May 14, according to a report by Coindesk, the continuous rise in U.S. government bond yields, especially Treasury yields, is traditionally seen as a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). However, analysts point out that the recent resilience of U.S. bond yields actually hides a deeper logic favorable to Bitcoin.

Spencer Hakimian, founder of Tolou Capital Management, noted that the current strength in yields reflects the market pricing in expectations of fiscal expansion during Trump's term. "The drop in bonds despite weak CPI indicates that fiscal expansion is unstoppable. All parties are betting heavily before the midterm elections, with the debt deficit temporarily set aside—this is good news for Bitcoin, gold, and stocks, but a nightmare for bonds." According to Hakimian's calculations, Trump's tax cut plan will immediately add $2.5 trillion to the fiscal deficit. A draft disclosed by Bloomberg shows that the plan includes $4 trillion in tax cuts and $1.5 trillion in spending cuts, with a net expansion scale of $2.5 trillion.

Arif Husain, Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income at T. Rowe Price, believes that fiscal expansion is about to become the dominant market narrative. "Fiscal expansion may stimulate growth, but more importantly, it will exacerbate pressure on the Treasury market. I am now more convinced that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will reach 6% in the next 12-18 months."

Anonymous observation agency EndGame Macro analyzes that the continuous high U.S. bond yields reflect a "fiscal dominance" phenomenon, essentially a repricing of U.S. sovereign risk. When inflation declines but bond yields continue to rise, the issue is no longer the inflation cycle but the sustainability of U.S. debt issuance itself. Rising yields will increase debt servicing costs, forcing the government to issue more bonds (expand supply), further pushing up interest rates, and potentially triggering a sovereign debt crisis. In this scenario, Bitcoin, seen as an anti-establishment asset, may highlight its allocation value.