Expectations for the altcoin season are soaring once again as a trader and angel investor with seven years of market experience, known as “cyclop,” announced on May 15 that he observed the “clearest bull setup” to date. As Bitcoin (BTC) $103,591 nears its all-time peak, individual investor interest remains at a low point. In contrast, the ETH/BTC pair has broken a three-year descending trend, and the Altcoin Index has rebounded from strong support, sparking an upward trend. Historically, each of these signs has triggered a rally on its own, but this time, they are all flashing simultaneously.
Market Signals Defining the Altcoin Season Unfold
Bitcoin is no longer just a speculative play; it is now seen as a “macro value preservation” asset embraced by institutions. Meanwhile, major Layer-1 projects, particularly Ethereum $2,564 and Solana $169 , have evolved from being labeled as “Bitcoin alternatives” to adopting a technological infrastructure identity.
The expansion of global liquidity, the increase in the amount of circulating stablecoins, and CoinMarketCap’s Altcoin Index jumping from 15 to 26 complete the classic combination previously observed during altcoin runs. CryptoRank data mirrors this trend, with the indicator climbing from mid-levels to 27 last week. In previous cycles, when individual investor interest hit bottom, altcoins have been observed to rise with a multiplier effect.
Google Trends data further reveals that searches for “buy cryptocurrency ” are at a three-year low. This calm environment allows long-term investors to add to their portfolios, reminiscent of the classic scenario where individual investors enter the market late. Meanwhile, the bullish divergence in the altcoin index’s price-momentum separation has signaled trend changes in previous cycles, with the bullish camp arguing that a similar divergence could trigger a domino effect rally this summer.
Insights from ETH/BTC Pair and BTC.D Data
In March, the ETH/BTC pair had fallen to 0.018 and recently rose to 0.025 in the last two weeks. This break in the three-year declining trend line indicates an increase in market risk appetite. Furthermore, experts consider the production of the “golden cross” in the altcoin market’s daily chart significant. The same formation was seen in October 2024 and resulted in a brief “mini altcoin season.” Nevertheless, analysts suggest there may be a period of horizontal-upward compression before triggering a broad-based rally.
The BTC.D indicator, which shows Bitcoin’s dominance over the market, dropped from 65.4% to 62% last week. This decline in BTC.D suggests a gradual shift of capital into altcoins, as evidenced by strong green candles in projects such as BNB , Tron, Sui, and Hyperliquid. However, the market as a whole exhibits a mixed trend. Some investors are taking early profits, while others are accumulating coins in anticipation of a potential delayed rally.
In the short term, while sharp price movements may still occur, if the current appearance of key indicators remains intact, analysts agree that a full-fledged altcoin season is now on the horizon.
