Standard Chartered says sovereigns' indirect bitcoin exposure via MSTR is growing, backing its $500,000 target

Sovereigns or government entities increased their indirect exposure to bitcoin in the first quarter of this year by buying shares of Strategy (MSTR), said Standard Chartered Bank, adding that the trend supports its $500,000 bitcoin price target before President Donald Trump leaves office in 2029.

"The latest 13F data from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) supports our core thesis that Bitcoin (BTC) will reach the $500,000 level before Trump leaves office as it attracts a wider range of institutional buyers," Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's global head of digital assets research, wrote in a report published Tuesday and shared with The Block. "As more investors gain access to the asset and as volatility falls, we believe portfolios will migrate towards their optimal level from an underweight starting position in BTC."

Overall, the latest Q1 13F filings — quarterly reports that institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets under management are required to file — show that direct bitcoin ETF ownership was "disappointing," while rising MSTR holdings were "very encouraging," Kendrick said.

The biggest ETF move came from the State of Wisconsin Investment Board, which exited its entire 3,400 BTC-equivalent position in BlackRock's IBIT ETF — the largest BTC ETF and the one most commonly held by government entities. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi quasi-sovereign Mubadala slightly increased its IBIT holdings to 5,000 BTC equivalent from 4,700. But more notable were increases in MSTR ownership, which Kendrick views as an indirect bitcoin proxy. "We believe that in some cases, MSTR holdings by government entities reflect a desire to gain Bitcoin exposure where local regulations do not allow direct BTC holdings," he said.

In Q1, several government entities increased their MSTR holdings, with Norway's Government Pension Fund, the Swiss National Bank, and South Korea's pension and investment bodies each adding the equivalent of 700 BTC. U.S. state retirement funds across California, New York, North Carolina, and Kentucky added a combined 1,000 BTC equivalent. Sweden and Liechtenstein made marginal increases, while France and Saudi Arabia took first-time positions — though small — signaling expanding sovereign interest in indirect bitcoin exposure, Kendrick noted.

"The quarterly 13F data is the best test of our thesis that BTC will attract new institutional buyer types as the market matures, helping the price reach our USD 500,000 target level," Kendrick said. "When institutions buy Bitcoin, prices tend to rise."

Besides bitcoin's bold price target , Kendrick has made several other crypto predictions in recent months. He expects BNB to hit $2,775 by 2028, Avalanche's AVAX token to reach $250 by 2029, and sees XRP climbing to $12.50 by 2028. He has lowered his ether forecast , now projecting a $4,000 price target for 2025. Kendrick also anticipates a surge in stablecoin adoption , forecasting the total market to approach $2 trillion by the end of 2028.

Kendrick told The Block last month that neither he nor Standard Chartered's crypto research team holds any digital assets.