Bitcoin UTXO Ratio Hits 99 as $65K Resistance Zone Faces New Test

• Bitcoin’s current UTXO metric matches past setups before major moves though price still needs stronger support.
• The profit-to-loss ratio remains under 200 and suggests more energy is needed to reach new chart highs.
• Past tops followed spikes in UTXO activity and current compression may hint at another strong price jump.

A new chart tracking the Bitcoin UTXO Profit-to-Loss (P/L) ratio shows the market is near a key inflection point. The 30-day simple moving average (SMA) of the UTXO P/L ratio currently stands at 99, suggesting no immediate overheating. However, historical data show that spikes above 200 often precede market euphoria and significant tops.

The chart, posted by market analyst @AxelAdlerJr on May 21, 2025, uses blockchain data to visualize shifts in unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs). When a large number of UTXOs move from loss into profit, the 30-day SMA of the P/L ratio typically rises rapidly. This pattern has preceded each of Bitcoin’s major peaks, including those in 2017, 2021, and now possibly in 2025.

The key price marker displayed on the chart is $65,000, which aligns closely with past highs. It serves as a psychological and technical resistance level. With the market sitting just below this level, the ratio’s position at 99 implies momentum remains but lacks immediate risk signals.

Market Energy Fading as Easy Profitability Exhausts

The chart shows that the current compression phase is different from earlier cycles in both duration and intensity. In previous bull markets, large upward spikes in the 30-day SMA of the UTXO P/L ratio occurred quickly. These spikes coincided with rapid Bitcoin price gains and later, steep corrections.

In 2017, the metric breached 200 as Bitcoin surged above $10,000. A similar pattern appeared in 2021 when BTC peaked above $60,000, triggering a major reversal. Both of those cycles show clearly defined orange bars indicating overheated market phases, each preceded by a rise in daily profitable UTXOs.

Now in 2025, the orange bars on the chart remain smaller, and the ratio is yet to cross the 200 line. Analyst commentary notes that while the price is climbing, the “easy” fuel from early profitable entries has already been used. This phase now requires stronger upward momentum or new capital inflows to continue rising.

Can Bitcoin Sustain Gains Without a Spike Above 200?

The real question now is: can Bitcoin reach new highs without pushing the P/L metric above 200? The chart suggests that while not overheated, the market is in a fragile zone. Without another surge in daily profitable UTXOs, the bullish energy may taper off.

The analyst notes that this cycle’s third compression could be the “spring” needed to propel the metric into the overheated zone. Should that happen, it could serve as a warning of a nearing top, not confirmation of continued upside. For now, with the ratio sitting at 99, the market holds potential, but confirmation will only come with a decisive move.

The visual correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the UTXO metric remains consistent. This offers traders a reliable on-chain signal to measure crowd sentiment. With volume and daily profit shifts closely linked to price behavior, investors are watching the next move with focus.