Has Solana Entered a Cycle Why the Dream of SOL Reaching $200 Remains Elusive

Just a month ago, Solana [SOL] was eyeing a breakout above $180. Now, even after a sharp 7% rebound, it is barely holding the $150 mark, signaling a 30% plunge in less than three weeks. While some may blame overall market weakness, the data tells a clearer story. Among major coins, SOL’s drop has been notably steeper, indicating a structural breakdown rather than just a simple correlation decay. This is where things get interesting. This persistent underperformance relative to the broader market may not be entirely market-driven. Instead, it could be the result of a feedback loop—one that has trapped SOL in a range, with retail investors caught in the middle.

Solana Faces Strong Underwater Resistance

Solana still hasn’t reclaimed $200—not at the end of Q1, nor throughout Q2. There’s a good reason for this. When SOL surged to $180 last month, about 86% of its supply was in profit. Fast forward 30 days, and that figure has halved. This shift signals a growing wall of sell-side liquidity, making the $180 region a heavy supply zone.

Solana’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) reinforces this dynamic. It shows a concentrated cost basis between $144 and $168, with a peak cluster between $155 and $165—perfectly aligned with current price levels.

If SOL pushes toward $180, these holders will start to move into profit, introducing greater selling pressure right at the breakout point. While a well-coordinated bullish push could clear this wall and open the path to $200, this is where the feedback loop tightens.

Smart Money Lacks Clear Direction

While Ripple [XRP] continues to range and has failed to break key resistance, it has still managed to limit its monthly drop to 25%, less than Solana’s 30% decline.

But AMBCrypto believes the real story lies in the difference in smart money behavior. XRP shows signs of gradual absorption, with bulls quietly accumulating. In contrast, Solana’s whales are reinforcing the range, consistently buying the dips and selling near resistance, effectively tightening the feedback loop.

On-chain data supports this: every time SOL approaches a local top, the number of whale wallets (>10k SOL) surges, but drops sharply as the price pulls back.

This cycle of tactical accumulation and distribution keeps SOL constrained, unable to absorb the persistent sell-side liquidity near $180.

Until smart money shifts to a directional conviction, for now, a move to $200 looks more like hope than a setup, putting the breakout narrative officially on pause.