Analysts predict $30 trillion market cap for tokenized RWA by 2034

RedStone, risk-modeling firm Gauntlet, and analytics provider RWA.xyz project that the on-chain market for tokenized real-world assets (RWA) could reach as much as $30 trillion by 2034, according to a joint report from June 26.

Researchers calculate that tokenized RWAs, excluding stablecoins, expanded from roughly $5 billion in 2022 to more than $24 billion by June 2025, an 85% year-over-year increase that positions the sector as crypto’s fastest-growing vertical after dollar-pegged tokens.

Private credit drives the total with $14 billion outstanding, while tokenized US Treasury vehicles contribute about $7.5 billion, according to rwa.xyz dashboards embedded in the study.

The report modeled several adoption curves and concluded that capturing 10 to 30% of global securities and alternative assets between 2030 and 2034 would bring the on-chain figure closer to the $16 trillion to $30 trillion range.

Institutional demand, DeFi rails, and oracle design

The report stated that BlackRock, JPMorgan, Franklin Templeton, and Apollo now issue production-scale funds on public blockchains, signaling that tokenization has progressed from proof of concept to live deployment in under two years.

Yield-bearing Treasury tokens, rebasing share classes, and leveraged private credit loops on Morpho and Kamino demonstrate how decentralized finance (DeFi) rails create new distribution channels and liquidity venues for traditionally illiquid instruments. 

RedStone argued that accurate pricing hinges on oracle architectures that merge net-asset-value snapshots, regulatory attestations, and illiquidity discounts, a framework that departs from the real-time spot feeds common in DeFi.

Roadmap to $30 trillion

Gauntlet models indicated that private credit could surpass $250 billion on-chain once tokenized loan origination reaches 5% of the $3 trillion global market. 

In comparison, Treasury-bill tokens could exceed $1 trillion if asset managers allocate 2% of short-duration funds to blockchain rails. 

The authors forecasted that programmable compliance layers, such as Securitize’s sToken, and increasing regulatory clarity in the United States, Europe, and Asia would enable pension funds and insurers to allocate directly to tokenized products, broadening the addressable base beyond crypto-native capital.

Reporting cadence

RedStone plans to update the market-size tracker quarterly and add live oracle metrics for on-chain RWA indices. At the same time, Gauntlet will release risk-parameter adjustments for leveraged vaults tied to private credit pools. 

The consortium will host further briefings at the RWA Summit in Cannes on July 1, where it will publish granular inflow data and the methodology underpinning its $30 trillion upper-bound model.

The report identified the current $24 billion footprint as roughly 0.006% of the $400 trillion in traditional assets but contends that institutional issuance velocity and programmable settlement advantages justify a $30 trillion scenario within nine years.

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