Beyond the Buzz: Does Social Hype Drive Lasting On-Chain Growth? (Part 1)

A 2-part deep-dive into whether viral X posts and incentivized campaigns translate into durable, on-chain growth.

In the fast-moving world of blockchain, social media buzz often feels like the ultimate growth hack. A viral tweet from a prominent "yapper," a well-timed announcement, or an incentivized social campaign can send engagement metrics soaring overnight. But does this digital noise translate into lasting on-chain value?

Our comprehensive analysis of social media influence across multiple blockchain ecosystems reveals a sobering truth: most social hype generates temporary spikes in activity that quickly fade, failing to drive sustained user engagement or meaningful growth.

The Great Social Experiment

Crypto’s growth playbook is built on the belief that eyeballs today become users tomorrow. From airdrop quests to leaderboard “yappers,” protocols pour resources into going viral on X or enrolling in incentivized programs such as Kaito Yaps Earn. Yet industry anecdotes have always clashed with nagging doubts: Does the frenzy of a campaign really translate into lasting daily active users, quality users, and meaningful volume?

We examined the impact of social influence through two distinct lenses:

Incentivized Campaigns: Blockchains and protocols participating in the Kaito Yaps Earn program, where users were rewarded for social engagement around specific projects.

Organic Social Buzz: Natural viral moments and high-mindshare posts from top X accounts and the chain or protocol’s official accounts, measured against on-chain activity before and after the social event.

From the selected 7 Kaito Earn incentivized projects and 8 incentivized projects, only 8 projects with complete available data were included in the final analysis.

Kaito Earn programs analyzed for impact

The analysis also examines several other dimensions, including protocol vs. chain-level dynamics, pre- and post-TGE phases, the influence of X posts from top yappers with the highest mindshare vs. official protocol/chain accounts, and various categories such as DeFi, social, gaming, and more.

Chains/Protocols analyzed for impact

* For incentivized chains/protocols, key dates used for the before vs. after analysis are the Kaito Earn dates; for non-incentivized chains/protocols, key dates are the dates where the X account experienced significant increase in mindshare.

For each project listed above, we tracked critical metrics including daily active users, transaction counts, quality user percentages (addresses with Flipside Crypto Scores of 4+ and 8+), DEX volume, and the possible price effect from the native tokens, across a 60-day window pre-campaign and 30-day window post-campaign for each project.

Methodology and metrics tracked for the analysis

Through analyzing different aspects above, we expect to have some insights in four key areas:

(1) The effectiveness of Kaito Earn incentives versus organic growth;

(2) How Pre- vs. Post-TGE projects respond to marketing;

(3) The comparative impact of chain-level vs. protocol-specific campaigns; and

(4) Whether these efforts lead to sustained quality user growth or just short-term activity spikes.

Expected insights from the analysis

For comparing time-series differences, we employ two approaches: visual analysis through plotting time-series data before and after the campaign (or mindshare peak) period, and statistical testing.

In our statistical approach, we begin with the null hypothesis that the distributions before and after the campaign are identical. We then apply the Shapiro-Wilk test to determine if the dataset follows a normal distribution. For normally distributed data in both periods, we use Welch's t-test , which accommodates unequal variances. If either period's data isn't normally distributed, we apply the Mann-Whitney U test —a non-parametric test that doesn't require normal distribution. When test statistics reject the null hypothesis, we can conclude there's a significant difference between pre-campaign and post-campaign periods.

The Pattern Emerges: Temporary Spikes, No Lasting Impact

Incentivized Campaigns: Artificial Engagement

The results from Kaito Yaps Earn campaigns paint a clear picture of manufactured engagement that struggles to sustain itself:

Arbitrum

Arbitrum's current Kaito Earn program is still on-going and will end on August 31, 2025. So the analysis only covers periods before the campaign and after the campaign launch. The chart below shows modest improvements during its ongoing campaign: DEX volume increased 43.51% and transaction counts rose 8.93%; whereas high quality user percentages actually declined by 7.35%.

Arbitrum Kaito Earn program metrics

However,  the statistical tests fail to reject the hypothesis that the DEX volume and transaction counts are the same before and during the campaign, suggesting there is no significant difference even though the single point comparison shows some increase in these metrics.

Statistical analysis of key Arbitrum metrics after Earn program Arbitrum price action before and after Earn program Arbitrum daily active users (DAU) and tx count before and after Earn program Arbitrum quality user count before and after Earn program

Only two metrics showed an increase and passed the statistical tests: daily active users and the percentage of quality users (Flipside score 4+). Looking at the active user chart, the daily numbers appear highly volatile, making it difficult to determine whether the 5% increase is attributable to the Kaito Earn program or simply random fluctuation. For the percentage of quality users chart, the upward trend began two months before the campaign launch, making it equally challenging to credit the campaign for the increase in quality users.

Mantle

Mantle experienced more dramatic swings. While transaction counts surged 16.62% during the campaign, this was followed by a devastating -48.55% drop post-campaign. A very similar pattern was found for the active users too. On the other hand, the percentage of quality users (4+) initially dropped -10% during the campaign, then partially recovered with a 24.35% increase afterward—but the percentage of high quality users (8+) dropped back to below pre-campaign levels after the campaign period ended.

Mantle Kaito Earn program metrics

Even though the statistical tests show mostly the metrics pre-campaign and post-campaign are significantly different, the charts show clearly that this difference is where the post-campaign numbers are significantly lower than pre-campaign, except for high quality users (4+).

Statistical analysis of key Mantle metrics after Earn program Mantle price action before and after Earn program Mantle daily active users (DAU) and tx count before and after Earn program Mantle quality user count before and after Earn program

Lombard Finance

Lombard Finance represents perhaps the most typical example of price induced effects for smaller projects. The protocol started with single digit users and transactions pre-campaign, then saw an explosive growth leading towards the campaign and shortly after. But these numbers reveal more about the power of financial incentives since the trend lines in almost all metrics align closely with the price of Ethereum (Lombard is pre-TGE, so $ETH price is used in the chart).

Lombard Finance Kaito Earn Program metrics Lombard daily active users (DAU) and tx count before and after Earn program Lombard price action and volume before and after Earn program Lombard quality user count before and after earn program

Virtuals Protocol

Virtuals Protocol tells a similar story—the campaign launch triggered a noticeable improvement in user engagement metrics and substantially increased the number of quality users interacting with the protocol. Daily active user counts showed upward momentum following the campaign's initiation, and transaction volumes followed suit with considerable growth compared to pre-campaign levels. However, this positive trajectory closely aligns with the upward movement of the VIRTUAL token's price chart during the same period, creating a significant analytical challenge. The temporal correlation between these two factors—campaign activity and price appreciation—makes it difficult to isolate and definitively attribute the observed growth to either variable independently. This entanglement of potential causal factors raises important questions about whether users were primarily responding to the campaign's messaging and incentives or were simply reacting to favorable price action by increasing their engagement with the protocol.

Virtuals Protocol Kaito Earn Program metrics Virtuals Protocol daily active users (DAU) and tx count before and after Earn program Virtuals Protocol price action and volume before and after Earn program Virtuals Protocol quality user count before and after Earn program

Key Findings So Far & Part II

Our analysis of incentivized campaigns shows a clear pattern: social media campaigns create temporary activity spikes but fail to generate sustainable growth. The data shows:

• Activity returning to baseline after campaigns end
• Declining quality user percentages despite higher raw numbers
• Strong correlation with token price movements rather than social influence

In the next part, we'll examine non-incentivized projects with organic viral moments to determine if organic social buzz outperforms paid campaigns in creating lasting on-chain activity. We'll also explore effective alternatives for building sustainable user communities beyond social hype.