Whale Ratio Nears Critical Level : Bitcoin At A Turning Point

Bitcoin dropped by 7 % in a few days, just after reaching an all-time high above $124,000. Simple pause or the start of a reversal ? While the market questions the strength of the bullish cycle, some on-chain indicators send a completely different signal. Behind the volatility, some well-known indicators among seasoned investors outline a possible bottom, often a precursor to a rebound.

Whales on the lookout : the Exchange Whale Ratio nears a critical zone

While many institutional players like Strategy are strengthening their bitcoin reserves , expert SunflowrQuant reveals a technical signal rarely ignored by professionals in an analysis published by CryptoQuant : the Exchange Whale Ratio.

This indicator measures the share of the 10 largest transactions entering exchanges, and according to the analyst, it is currently about to reach a level historically associated with market bottoms.

“A new bullish phase for BTC could start in the short term, as a key indicator sends positive signals”, he emphasizes .

Observed on a seven-day moving average, the metric currently displays a value of 0.48, approaching the 0.50 zone, a threshold which, according to SunflowrQuant, “has often marked local price bottoms, followed by consolidation phases and subsequent bullish recoveries”.

Here is what this indicator suggests, based on the history of its variations :

• When the ratio approaches 0.50, it often coincides with local market bottoms ;

• This level is generally followed by stabilization phases, then a bullish recovery ;

• An increase in the ratio indicates that whales become more active on exchanges, which is interpreted as preparation ahead of significant movements ;

• The current level of 0.48 suggests that BTC could be close to a new turning point, provided this signal is confirmed in the coming days.

$120,000, a zone of attraction or a technical mirage ?

Alongside the behavioral analysis of whales, another tool catches the attention of technical observers: liquidation. According to Coinglass data , a significant concentration of leveraged positions has formed around the $120,000 zone.

These liquidity clusters, representing zones of high liquidation exposure, act like a magnet on the price. “When significant capital is concentrated above the current value of an asset, it tends to attract short-term bullish momentum, as traders seek to exploit these liquidity zones”, the analysis specifies .

This configuration could thus fuel a technical recovery momentum of bitcoin toward $120,000, provided of course that selling pressure does not intensify immediately. Indeed, if the opposite scenario were to occur, markets could see a fall back to $111,961, a level briefly touched last August 3.

This threshold currently represents the nearest support in case of extended correction. The proximity of these two zones, major support and liquidity cluster, could thus catalyze a period of intense consolidation before any directional movement.

For now, BTC’s technical setup remains delicate. Between the attraction of a symbolic threshold and the risks of capitulation, the market is hanging on the actions of large holders. If the local bottom scenario is confirmed, the current zone could become a launchpad for a bullish recovery, likely toward $150,000 as Novogratz predicts . Conversely, any aborted rise could give sellers back some ground.