Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: Commodity Price Increases Expected to Be Lower Than Previously Anticipated

According to a report by Jinse Finance, the Federal Reserve has released the minutes of its July meeting, which noted that staff projections for real GDP growth from this year through 2027 are similar to those made at the June meeting, reflecting offsetting effects from various forecast revisions. Staff expect that the increase in the cost of imported goods, including tariffs, will be smaller and occur later than previously projected; in addition, financial conditions are expected to provide somewhat stronger support for output growth. However, these positive impacts on the economic outlook are offset by weaker-than-expected spending data and the effect of net immigration on population growth being lower than assumed. Staff continue to expect the labor market to weaken, with the unemployment rate likely to rise above the staff’s estimated natural rate of unemployment around the end of this year and remain above the natural rate through 2027.