Bitcoin Falls Below $11K Mark, Over $900M Liquidated: Prelude to September Curse?

Original Title: "Bitcoin Flash Crash, $9 Billion Liquidated: Prelude to the September Curse?"

Original Source: Bitpush News

This Monday, the crypto market saw increased turbulence. Bitcoin experienced a sharp drop below the $110,000 mark, reaching a low of $109,324, the lowest since early July. Ethereum also dropped below $4,400 in the short term, with a nearly 8% decrease in the past 24 hours. This round of correction triggered a large-scale market liquidation: according to CoinGlass data, at the time of writing, the 24-hour liquidation amount exceeded $9 billion, with Ethereum longs losing about $322 million and Bitcoin longs losing $207 million.

The market chain reaction was swift, with mainstream altcoins coming under pressure: Solana plummeted over 8% in a single day, XRP fell by 6%, and smaller market cap tokens like PENDLE, LDO, and PENGU recorded double-digit declines, with daily losses of up to 13%.

Historical Pattern: The "September Curse"

Investor caution is not unfounded, as CoinGlass statistics show that September is one of the worst-performing months for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

The chart above compares the actual September price changes of BTC and ETH from 2017 to 2024, showing:

· BTC has mostly seen negative performance in September, with only 2023 (+3.91%) and 2024 (+7.29%) posting gains.

· ETH's September declines are usually more significant, with 2017 (–21.65%), 2020 (–17.08%), and 2022 (–14.49%) notably underperforming BTC.

· Only in 2019 (ETH +5.72% vs BTC –13.38%), 2023, and 2024 did ETH show stronger performance.

This "September Curse" has appeared in previous bull market cycles. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin saw a sharp pullback in September after a strong summer rally.

Analyst Viewpoint: Short-Term Trend Reversal

Renowned analyst Benjamin Cowen pointed out that the strength of July and August often reverses in September, with Bitcoin likely to test the bull market support zone near $110,000. He also warned that Ethereum may briefly reach a new high but could then drop by 20–30%, while altcoins could see even larger declines of 30–50%.

Another active market analyst, Doctor Profit, supplemented a more pessimistic judgment from a macro and psychological perspective. He believes that the Fed's rate cut in September was more of a trigger for uncertainty rather than a positive development. Unlike the "soft landing rate cut" expected in 2024, this time may be a true "major turning point," triggering a synchronized correction in both the stock market and the crypto market.

On the price front, he also emphasized that there is still a CME gap at 93k–95k on the BTC chart, where significant liquidity is concentrated, and retail investors have generally established positions in the 110k–120k range or even higher. To shake out these "weak hands," the price must drop to their "maximum pain point range."

In his strategy, he mentioned that he has gradually reduced his BTC and ETH spot positions and instead entered into short-term short positions.

The latest fund flow data shows that the popularity of ETFs is cooling off. According to SoSoValue, last week saw a $1.17 billion outflow from Bitcoin spot ETFs, marking the second-largest weekly net outflow in history; Ethereum spot ETFs saw a $237.7 million outflow, the third-largest on record. This indicates that institutional funds are temporarily shifting to a wait-and-see approach, weakening support in the spot market.

On-chain data has also revealed structural signals. Glassnode pointed out that all Bitcoin holder groups have "collectively entered a distribution phase," highlighting a widespread selling pressure in the market. After Ethereum hit a new high of $4946 and retraced, the MVRV indicator rose to 2.15, implying that investors, on average, hold over twice the unrealized profit. Historically, this level, similar to December 2020 and March 2024, emerged before intense volatility and profit-taking.

Macroeconomic Factors: Fed and Interest Rate Risk

The uncertainty in the macro environment has further intensified market tension. Last Friday, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in September, initially boosting market optimism. However, both Cowen and Doctor Profit cautioned that a rate cut is not necessarily a positive signal and could lead to an increase in long-term Treasury yields, thereby suppressing risk assets. This scenario is reminiscent of September 2023 when a rate cut marked the low point for the bond market, followed by a surge in yields. Additionally, Benjamin Cowen pointed out that recent Producer Price Index (PPI) data shows that inflation is "hotter than expected," adding extra pressure on the market. With inflation pressures not fully easing, a shift in Fed policy could trigger new market turmoil.

Outlook and Conclusion

Looking at historical patterns, analyst opinions, and the macro environment, we can see that September has exerted several pressures on the crypto market:

· Seasonal Downtrend —September has historically averaged significant losses;

· Macro Uncertainty —The Fed's policy could be a market watershed;

· Imbalanced Fund Structure —Institutional outflows, retail FOMO at high levels;

· Intensified On-chain Selling Pressure —All hodler groups going into distribution, whale trades disrupting the market.

Although Cowen and Doctor Profit have differing opinions on the magnitude of the correction, the consensus is that September is not a turning point towards a bull market but a test that must be faced.

However, from a longer-term perspective, this correction may also be a necessary step for the bull market to continue. The market needs to purge overheated positions in the "maximum pain zone" to make room for the next leg up. If the cleansing is sufficient, BTC may still hit new highs in the subsequent cycle, and the long-term bullish thesis for ETH will remain unchanged.

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