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According to Jinse Finance, citing Finbold, Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics, stated that the institution’s latest machine learning leading indicator shows that as of August, the probability of a recession in the United States within the next year is 48%. He noted that although this reading is below the 50% threshold, historically, when the probability approaches or surpasses the 40% range, it often coincides with or closely follows a recession. Zandi also mentioned that slowing employment and consecutive downward revisions of data have placed the economy at a critical juncture.

According to ChainCatcher, citing Golden Ten Data, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this week, but there is still uncertainty regarding the policy guidance after the decision. Marc Giannoni, Chief US Economist at Barclays, stated that with inflation data remaining moderate, the FOMC will determine that the downside risks to achieving employment targets are increasing. He added that there will be almost no changes to the Federal Reserve's economic forecast report, but the dot plot will indicate three rate cuts this year (each by 25 basis points), one rate cut each in 2026 and 2027, and the median long-term interest rate forecast will remain unchanged at 3%.