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ChainCatcher News, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that the recent returns of the silver exchange-traded fund SLV are "exaggerated to an absurd degree," but the fund inflows have been quite limited, attracting only about $1 billion over the past six months. Investors should pay attention to the risks. In contrast, BlackRock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund IBIT, despite a price pullback of about 24%, has still recorded net inflows of over $6 billion. This is a "very positive" signal for bitcoin's long-term prospects, because when the market is favorable, any ordinary ETF can attract funds, but the ability to continue attracting inflows during prolonged tough periods is what makes a truly "hardcore" ETF.

a16z Crypto published an article pointing out that the large-scale development of prediction markets faces a bottleneck in contract settlement determination, with the adjudication mechanism simultaneously acting as "judge, jury, and executioner." The article mentioned the incident at the beginning of the year where Venezuelan President Maduro was reportedly captured by the US military. Polymarket denied that Venezuela was invaded and ruled the related market as "No," which sparked controversy. a16z Crypto believes that prediction markets struggle to balance official information and consensus from credible reports during contract execution, making the adjudication mechanism susceptible to manipulation.

BlockBeats News, January 25th, a16z Crypto released a long article titled "What to Do When the Prediction Market Fails." It stated that the hardest problem in a prediction market is not pricing the future but determining what actually happened. One of the biggest bottlenecks in the scaling of prediction markets is "how contracts settle." At the beginning of the year, former Venezuelan President Maduro was captured by the US military, while Polymarket denied that Venezuela was invaded, labeling the "US invasion of Venezuela" market as false, sparking widespread controversy. Polymarket later explained that "the market referred to the US military action aimed at establishing control, and the capture of Maduro and evacuation cannot be considered an invasion." a16z Crypto commented that the prediction market is facing a tricky situation, as the execution of prediction contracts should follow either official information (Maduro wins) or a consensus of credible reports (opposition wins). Polymarket's dispute resolution mechanism played the roles of "judge, jury, and executioner" in this political drama, and the settlement of contracts was heavily manipulated.