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The US economy is showing a divided state, with financial markets booming while the real economy is declining. The manufacturing PMI continues to contract, yet the stock market is rising due to concentrated profits in technology and financial companies, resulting in balance sheet inflation. Monetary policy struggles to benefit the real economy, and fiscal policy faces difficulties. The market structure leads to low capital efficiency, widening the gap between rich and poor and increasing social discontent. Cryptocurrency is seen as a relief valve, offering open financial opportunities. The economic cycle oscillates between policy adjustments and market reactions, lacking substantial recovery. Summary generated by Mars AI. The accuracy and completeness of this summary are still being iteratively updated by the Mars AI model.

Due to the reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and the fading rebound of the U.S. stock market, the crypto market continues to experience liquidations, with significant ETF capital outflows and options traders increasing bets on volatility. Institutions warn that technical support for bitcoin above $90,000 is weak.

As long as the system continues to recycle debt into asset bubbles, we will not see a true recovery—only a slow stagnation masked by rising nominal figures.



- 19:32JPMorgan: Federal Reserve's voting decision better than expectedChainCatcher news, JPMorgan analyst Bob Michele stated that the Federal Open Market Committee's decision "did not reach the worst-case scenario that could have occurred. There could have been more dissenting votes against not cutting rates." (Golden Ten Data) Risk Warning
- 19:32The Federal Reserve lowers the standing overnight reverse repurchase agreement rate to 3.75%ChainCatcher news, according to Golden Ten Data, the Federal Reserve has announced a reduction of the Standing Overnight Repurchase Agreement (ON RP) rate from 4% to 3.75%.
- 19:32Dot plot interpretation: 1 person believes there should be 6 rate cuts in 2026, while 3 people believe there should be 1 rate hike.ChainCatcher news, according to Golden Ten Data, the median of the Federal Reserve's dot plot shows that the Fed will cut interest rates once in 2026, once in 2027, and keep rates unchanged in 2028. Looking at the specific points, 3 members believe that there should be one rate hike in 2026 (2 in September), 4 members believe rates should remain unchanged in 2026 (6 in September), 4 members believe there should be one rate cut in 2026 (2 in September), 4 members believe there should be two rate cuts in 2026 (4 in September), 2 members believe there should be three rate cuts in 2026 (3 in September), 1 member believes there should be four rate cuts in 2026 (2 in September), and 1 member believes there should be six rate cuts in 2026 (0 in September).