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4/11 - Six bidders remain in the race: Agora, Frax, Native Markets, Paxos, OpenEden, and Sky (ex-MakerDAO). Each with a radically different design and philosophy.

ETF flows remain the clearest signal of institutional crypto demand. On Sept 10, the data showed a sharp divergence from the prior week’s softness: ➢ Bitcoin spot ETFs attracted $757M net inflows, led by FBTC (+$299M) and IBIT (+$211M). ➢ Ethereum spot ETFs turned positive with $171.5M inflows, snapping a multi-day outflow streak. ETF wrappers are now the marginal buyers of $BTC and $ETH. Yesterday’s prints show that Bitcoin is pulling in institutional-scale capital, while Ethereum is still viewed tactically, but not abandoned. ● Market Data Bitcoin Spot ETFs - Net Inflow (Sep 10): +$757M - Leaders: FBTC: +$299M IBIT: +$211M - Trend: Bitcoin ETFs continue to function as the baseline institutional bid. Even after weeks of chop, large inflows confirm that allocators use $BTC as the entry point into the asset class. Ethereum Spot ETFs - Net Inflow (Sep 10): +$171.5M - Trend: First sizeable positive day after six consecutive days of outflows ($500M+ lost in that stretch). Signal: Allocators are testing re-entry into $ETH, but demand is fragile compared to $BTC. ● Core Analysis $BTC flows are structural. - IBIT and FBTC act as institutional liquidity sinks. - These funds are now dampening volatility: even when spot BTC sells off, ETF inflows provide a baseline bid. $ETH flows are tactical. - Yesterday’s $171M reversal proves $ETH is still investable. - But unlike $BTC, flows aren’t sticky, they oscillate with ETH/BTC spread trades and macro rates. - ETH remains the “second choice” allocation unless narrative catalysts (restaking, staking yield vs Treasuries) reignite conviction. ● The Watchlist for September/October ➢ Macro policy path: A September/October Fed cut could redirect flows into higher-beta ETH risk. ➢ Relative strength: If ETH ETFs can string together multiple weeks of inflows, it would reset the ETH/BTC ratio narrative. ➢ Product evolution: Staking-enabled $ETH wrappers (yield + ETF) would be a game-changer. ● Big Picture ETF wrappers are crypto’s institutional distribution rail. ➢ For Bitcoin: Demand is persistent, heavy, and structural. It is the default wrapper for institutional allocators. ➢ For Ethereum: Inflows show $ETH isn’t abandoned, but conviction is weaker. Until $ETH demonstrates consistent ETF appetite, it will trade as a tactical allocation alongside cash-flow tokens, not a structural anchor. ✍️ My Take Don’t over-read single green prints. The story isn’t that “$ETH got $171M in inflows yesterday.” The story is whether $ETH can sustain inflows over multiple weeks the way $BTC consistently does.

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